A Market in Transition: CBRE's Joe Rigby on the Future of Manchester Real Estate

As Managing Director for the North at CBRE, Joe Rigby has a unique perspective on the forces shaping one of the UK's most dynamic property markets, Manchester.

Joe Rigby, Managing Director Northern Region, CBRE

In this market spotlight, he shares his analysis of the key trends, challenges, and opportunities defining the future of Manchester real estate.

A New Era of Investment in Manchester Real Estate

According to Rigby, the Manchester real estate market is currently being fueled by new sources of capital, particularly from "private equity and family offices" who see an opportunity to capitalise on what is perceived as a "down cycle".

This confidence is bolstered by a significant shift in corporate perception.

For the first time in a long time, major corporations are comparing Manchester directly to the capital and choosing it as a home for their HQ over London.

This growing appeal, Rigby notes, is built on a foundation of unique city strengths. He cites the "industrious" and creative nature of the people, combined with strong, consistent leadership from the City Council.

When you add the global profile generated by two major football clubs and the "abundance of talent" coming out of the city's universities, Manchester feels like a "safe haven outside of London right now" for investors.

Structural Shifts in the Manchester Real Estate Office Market

Within the office sector, the sustained "flight to quality" remains the key driver.

Demand for best-in-class space with strong ESG credentials and high-quality amenities is intense, leading to a "limited" supply of true Grade A offices. Rigby predicts that demand for new Grade A space is to surge significantly, with diminishing supply creating scarcity.

This supply-demand imbalance is causing a clear market shift. With a gap in the new-build development cycle, occupiers are now increasingly switching their focus to "strong refurb options" in well-located assets.

Rigby points to high-quality refurbishments like 125 Deansgate, The Met in Spinningfields, 35 Fountain Street and 101 Embankment as prime examples of where transaction volumes are now heading.

He notes that when these refurbs are completed to a high standard, "you'd think it's a new build anyway", meaning occupiers can still get the quality they demand.

Untapped Potential Beyond Manchester's Core

While the city centre is performing well, Rigby also sees significant opportunity in fringe locations and the wider region.

As the best-in-class space in the core gets taken up, he anticipates that more cost-sensitive occupiers will look to areas like Stockport and Didsbury, which are set to "really thrive".

He also points to Liverpool as a city with "untapped potential" that is now poised for growth with stronger leadership at a city level.

Closer to home, he highlights the renewed interest in Media City, where Landsec's investment is expected to create “some really incredible offerings and amenity”, making it a “really cool place to be doing business that will want to attract premium talent”.

Joe Rigby on The Future: Collaboration and Global Capital

Looking ahead, Rigby predicts two key trends will shape the future of Manchester real estate.

• Firstly, he expects to see "a lot more of the private sector and public sector coming together to bridge viability" on schemes that are currently challenging to deliver.

• Secondly, driven by the global status of the city's football clubs, he anticipates more international investment, including the potential for "more sovereign wealth entering the city" over time, further cementing Manchester's position on the world stage.

The Insider Take

Joe Rigby's analysis paints a clear picture of a market in a state of strategic transition.

For investors, developers, and occupiers, navigating this landscape requires looking beyond the headlines and understanding three fundamental shifts that are defining the new rules of the game in Manchester.

1. The "Flight to Quality" is Creating a Two-Tier Market: The intense demand for best-in-class, ESG-compliant office space is not just a trend; it is cleaving the market in two.

On one side are the prime, amenity-rich assets commanding premium rents. On the other is a growing pool of secondary stock that is becoming increasingly difficult to lease. For investors, the message is clear: the risk is no longer just in the market cycle, but in the asset itself. Owning a non-compliant or undesirable building is now a significant liability.

2. The Refurbishment "Gold Rush" is Here: Rigby's point about the "diminishing" supply of new Grade A space is the most critical commercial signal in this article.

With a gap in the new-build development cycle, a golden window of opportunity has opened for the owners of well-located secondary assets. The next 24-36 months will be defined by a "refurbishment gold rush," where savvy landlords who invest capital into high-quality, amenity-led refurbishments will be perfectly positioned to capture the intense occupier demand that new builds cannot satisfy.

3. The Capital is Maturing: The shift from traditional institutional funds to private equity, family offices, and the anticipated arrival of sovereign wealth is a sign of Manchester's maturation into a truly global city.

This new capital is often more agile, has different attitudes to risk, and is looking for more complex, value-add opportunities. The rise of Public-Private Partnerships to "bridge viability" is a direct response to this. For local developers, this means the game is changing; success will now depend on the ability to partner with these new, more sophisticated sources of global capital.

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